Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 103800.786601 109339.095027 114868.752738 120800.417454 126979.417264 133222.649945 140003.815777
2025-07-27 95022.354804 103531.032844 112255.543676 121858.986794 132121.797852 142749.333383 154575.098978
2025-08-03 88136.048925 98651.139258 109662.989726 122032.272430 135515.858516 149745.070844 165872.936165
2025-08-10 82966.442430 94994.581845 107815.642941 122461.499980 138689.901727 156082.219472 176091.863725
2025-08-17 78509.418276 91708.925198 105998.980045 122564.410153 141181.748798 161401.356287 184962.883673
2025-08-24 75520.450155 89801.516318 105476.860618 123884.601433 144830.512847 167843.649716 194958.463820
2025-08-31 72016.716693 87085.437905 103840.922175 123756.385561 146680.651340 172138.205345 202439.840337
2025-09-07 69942.280086 85870.452868 103789.470018 125319.930713 150359.258999 178430.785355 212145.523352
2025-09-14 67776.526236 84422.550824 103357.723327 126343.210736 153334.315372 183864.043270 220839.820937
2025-09-21 65317.336797 82508.987159 102275.714031 126508.541760 155229.514159 187992.933904 227991.996213
2025-09-28 63083.362557 80763.960775 101302.010611 126717.529586 157105.681748 192049.394909 235031.131328
2025-10-05 62006.607462 80356.734479 101870.587950 128719.160324 161074.213479 198546.517440 244947.008699
2025-10-12 60769.219814 79723.444802 102152.978043 130381.532814 164667.353393 204658.711797 254506.742262
2025-10-19 59241.027807 78674.152942 101884.090636 131340.327285 167395.478793 209745.635275 262877.378640
2025-10-26 57398.434687 77165.266489 100992.842255 131485.748473 169097.454601 213582.056425 269749.322272
2025-11-02 55817.039781 75927.147511 100384.286712 131932.896140 171132.316515 217799.662377 277080.299199
2025-11-09 54164.070454 74540.682780 99539.546149 132040.170074 172712.739932 221444.841723 283713.926979
2025-11-16 53213.938251 74019.728403 99750.473474 133442.416301 175881.639838 227026.759411 292728.493990
2025-11-23 51607.819560 72596.836632 98773.378249 133306.080044 177101.016241 230199.702839 298789.151336
2025-11-30 50893.301342 72312.490447 99226.106934 134967.151431 180567.692317 236150.724605 308299.198432
2025-12-07 49963.617634 71712.052918 99245.817523 136054.144735 183299.417096 241193.890818 316707.170414
2025-12-14 48685.111365 70608.805443 98580.351625 136229.760283 184852.653599 244759.120939 323282.646956
2025-12-21 47484.305925 69574.394649 97972.758698 136451.746146 186444.103146 248362.596936 329911.430620